高压直流接触器寿命预测模型的研究

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摘 要： 高可靠性与长使用寿命是高压直流接触器的发展方向。通过高压直流接触器电寿命试验分析吸合时间、释放时间、燃弧时间等特征参数的退化趋势，进而结合接触器的退化与失效机理，以释放时间为特征变量，建立基于函数拟合和自回归的寿命预测数学模型。对比结果表明，基于自回归的寿命预测模型预测精度最高。

关键词： 高压直流接触器; 退化与失效机理; 电寿命试验; 寿命预测; 自回归模型

中图分类号： TM572.1 文献标志码： A 文章编号： 2095-8188（2025）01-0001-05

DOI： 10.16628/j.cnki.2095-8188.2025.01.001

Research on Life Prediction Models of HVDC Contactors

GU Zhihao， WU Chengchuang， ZHANG Chao， HE Yubin， REN Wanbin

（School of Electrical Engineering and Automation， Harbin Institute of Technology， Harbin 150001， China）

Abstract： Higher reliability and longer service life have been the development directions for high voltage DC （HVDC） contactors.An electrical endurance test of an HVDC contactor is carried out.The degradation trends of featured parameters such as pick-up time， release time and arcing time are analyzed.In addition， according to the degradation and failure mechanisms of the contactor， the lifespan prediction models based on the function fitting and autoregression are established using the release time as the featured parameter.By comparing the prediction results， it is concluded that the lifespan prediction model based on autoregression has the best prediction accuracy.

Key words： high voltage DC contactor; degradation and failure mechanism; electrical endurance test; life prediction; autoregression model

0 引 言

高压直流接触器是多电飞机、新能源汽车、能源互联网等的电源分配单元（PDU）中不可或缺的元器件［1-2］，这类机电元器件的故障或失效往往被认为是PDU乃至整个配电系统的潜在安全隐患［3-6］。（剩余5134字）