PCI术后卧床便秘病人并发心脏不良事件列线图预测模型的构建

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Construction of Nomogram prediction model for cardiac adverse events in bedridden constipation patients after PCI surgery

Abstract  Objective：To analyze the risk factors of adverse cardiac events in bedridden constipation patients after PCI and establish a predictive nomogram model.Methods：A total of 248 patients with constipation in bed during PCI perioperative period admitted to our hospital from November 2020 to October 2021 were selected as the research objects.According to whether the patients had cardiac adverse events during hospitalization，they were divided into cardiac adverse events group and non-cardiac adverse events Group.Collect two groups of clinical data for single factor and binary logistic regression analysis to obtain independent predictive factors，build a nomogram risk model based on this，and evaluate the predictive efficacy of the model.Results：The incidence of adverse cardiac events was 17.3%.Univariate and binary logistic regression analysis showed that patients were ≥68 years old （OR=9.970，95%CI 2.599⁃38.251），defecation in supine position （OR=3.308，95%CI 1.074⁃10.188），D dimerization body ≥402.99 ng/mL（OR=29.901，95%CI 8.800⁃101.601） and left ventricular ejection fraction≤47.46%（OR=23.540，95%CI 7.118⁃77.853） are patients with bedridden constipation after PCI with heart Independent risk factors for adverse events（P<0.05）.A nomogram risk model was established based on the above influencing factors.The model verification results showed that the model consistency index（C⁃index） was 0.955，and the calibration curve showed that the nomogram model had good discrimination and consistency.Conclusions：The age，defecation position，D⁃dimer level，and left ventricular ejection fraction of patients with constipation in bed after PCI are closely related to the occurrence of adverse cardiac events.The nomogram model established based on this is helpful for clinical nurses to identify high⁃risk early patient.

Keywords  bed rest； constipation； adverse cardiac events； nomogram model； risk factors

摘要  目的：分析经皮冠状动脉介入（PCI）术后卧床便秘病人并发心脏不良事件的危险因素，并建立预测列线图模型。（剩余11748字）