基于三参数威布尔分布的锆合金疲劳寿命高准确度预测模型构建方法

打开文本图片集

中图分类号：TG146.414；TL341 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000-582X（2025）12-001-11

doi：10.11835/j.issn.1000-582X.2024.262

Abstract： During the operation of nuclear reactors，zirconium alloy claddings are subjected to significant cyclic stresses，necesitating an accurate evaluation of their fatigue properties essential for preventing structural failure. This study proposes a high-accuracy prediction method for the fatigue life of zirconium alloys by employing fatigue test data from alloyssubjected to two distinct heat-treatment conditions.A thre-parameter Weibull distribution model was established using the probabilistic weighted moments method to construct reliability-stressnumber （R-S-N） cycles curves.These curves were rigorously compared and validated against those obtained from thetraditional Basquin model.The findings indicate that the R-S-N curves derived from the three-parameter Weibull distribution demonstrate superior fiting accuracy and significantly outperform the conventional model. This advanced modeling approach provides areliableand effective means for predicting the fatigue behavior of zirconium alloys，offring significant implications for the structural designand safety assessment of nuclear reactors.

KeyWords： zirconium aloy; S-N curves; Weibulldistribution; fatigue performance; lifespan evaluation

锆合金具有良好的中子经济性，且易于冷加工，在反应堆内严苛服役环境中表现出可靠的耐腐蚀性能、蠕变性能和力学性能，并且对核燃料具有良好的相容性，是目前国际上唯一大规模商用的压水堆燃料组件包壳材料[4。（剩余11361字）