干热岩压裂诱发地震风险管控“交通灯”系统搭建初探

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关键词干热岩；诱发地震；“交通灯”系统；资源能源开发

中图分类号：P315 文献标识码：A 文章编号：2096-7780（2026）02-0047-10

doi：10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2025-094

Preliminary design of a traffic light system for risk management of earthquakes induced by hot dry rock fracturing

Guan Junpeng1，3）， Wang Lijuan2， Pang Wei， Yang Yongbiao1，3），Chen Jun13，YiShanxin3），ChenDog，3）

1） Geological Survey ofJiangsu Province， Jiangsu Nanjing21oo18， China

2） New Energy Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province， Jiangsu Nanjing 211112， China

3） Natural Resources Carbon Neutralization Engineering Research Center of Jiangsu Province， Jiangsu Nanjing210018，China

4） Shandong Provincial Geo-mineral Engineering Exploration Institute （No.801 Hydrogeological and Engineering Geological Brigade of Shandong Provincial Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources）， ShandongJinan 250014， China

AbstractHot dry rock （HDR） is a strategic clean energy resource with considerable advantages， including abundant reserves，stable power output，and renewability.However，induced seismicity remains a primary chalenge in HDR developmentandrepresentsacriticalbotleneck，leading totheterminationorpostponementofseveral interational projects.This study systematicaly reviews thecomposition，typical case studies，and existing problems of curent trafic light systems （TLS） for seismic risk mitigation during HDR hydraulic stimulation. Based on the principles of selecting parameters that directlyrelate toseismogenesis control，are easilymeasurable，and facilitate systematic management，we have proposed fundamental criteria fordetermining TLSdecision parametersand threshold setings.Subsequently，we developed an enhanced TLS framework incorporating six key parameters， namely， earthquake magnitude， b -value， peak ground velocity （PGV），injected fluid volume，injectionrate，and wellhead injection pressure.We identified the major challenges facing TLS implementationand suggested future research directions，aiming to provide references for nduced seismicity risk management in HDR，shalegas，andother energysectors involving hydraulic fracturing，supporting national strategic initiatives for deep-resource exploitation.

Keywordshot dry rock; induced earthquake; trafic light system; resource and energy development

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