铁路工程铺轨基地碳排放测算及影响因素研究

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中图分类号：U215 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000-582X（2026）04-050-13

doi：10.11835/j.issn.1000-582X.2024.285

Research on carbon emission calculation and influencing factors of railway track-layingbases

BAOXueying'，RENHaitao'，LIUBeisheng，LIHut，LI Zilong （1.College of Civil Engineering，Lanzhou Jiaotong University，Lanzhou 73oo70，P.R.China; 2.Instituteof Computing Technologies，China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited，Beijing 10o081，P.R.China）

Abstract： As a major temporary facility in railway construction，the carbon emissions generated by track-laying bases constitute asignificant sourceof embodied carbon during the materialization stage.Inthis study，a carbon emission measurement model for the life cycle of railway track-laying bases is establishedusing the carbon emission factor method.Thecharacteristic emission contributors are then extractedas potential influencing factors，and key factors are identified by feature-importance ranking.Furthermore，an interpretable machine learning model is used to visualize the contribution of these key factors and to analyze their impact mechanisms on carbon emissons.The results show thatthe totallife cyclecarbon emissionsofa track-laying base range from4 825.134 t to 15122.059t. Carbon emissions from building materials in the production stage account for the largest share （ 72% to 86% ）. According to the importance ranking，the five key influencing factors are base area， foundation treatment method，road hardening method，mechanical track length，and stock track length.The influence of these key factors on carbon emissions are further analyzed by SHAP（Shapley additive explanations） summary plots and dependency scater plots.The findings providea theoretical basis for promoting carbon reduction strategies in the construction and operation of railway track-laying bases.

Keywords： railway track-laying base;carbon emissions; random forest regression;interpretable machine learning; influencing factors

铁路在中国交通运输体系中发挥着重要作用，加强铁路节能减排工作是实现“双碳”目标的有效路径之二[-2]。（剩余14538字）