元谋地震台地下流体观测干扰因素及预报效能分析

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关键词对比分析；干扰类型；预报效能； R 值

中图分类号：P315.72 文献标识码：A 文章编号：2096-7780（2025）09-0549-10

doi：10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2024-104

Analysis of interference factors and prediction efficiency of underground fluid observations at Yuanmou seismic station

Shi Jianming， LiQing， Xiao Xin， Zhou Jianrong， Luo Jiazheng （Yunnan Earthquake Agency， Yunnan Kunming 65o224， China）

AbstractThe underground fluid observationaldata of Dian O2 wellat Yuanmou seismic station from 2008 to 2024 wereselected，and four typesof interference wereidentifiedbycomparisonwithnormal observationaldata：technical system failure，siteenvironmental， human factor，andotheraccidental interference.The prediction efficiencyof he underground fluid observational data from Yuanmou seismic station was analyzed.The prediction efficiency R values of all undergroundfluidobservational dataofYuanmouseismicstation werecalculatedusingthethreshold，ratedifference， trendtuming，andannual change detection methods.Theresultsshowed thatthe water temperature， water leveland gas radon R values calculated using these four methods were all greater than O，indicating that they have predictive significance.The prediction effciencyof the Water temperature calculated using the rate difference method was R greater than R0， indicating predictive significance. The gaseous mercury R values calculated using the four methods were all less than O， indicating that gaseous mercury had no effective predictive significance.

Keywordscomparative analysis; type of interference; prediction efficiency; R value

0 引言

地震地下流体观测在我国地震监测预报中发挥着重要作用，特别是在短临预报中往往起决定性作用，表现出对地震前兆异常的高灵敏性[1]。（剩余9344字）