现代·新时代的新观念

——漫步地震五千年(16)

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关键词地震的不确定性；概率预报；韧性城市；雄安新区；地震必知中图分类号：P315 文献标识码：A 文章编号：2096-7780（2025）07-0416-19doi：10.19987/j.dzkxjz.2025-030

AbstractMonitoring and prediction，seismic prevention，and emergency relief are three basic earthquake countermeasures in the new era.New scientific concepts and technologies are being introduced in responseto therapid urbanization and aging ofsociety.After acentury of exploration in earthquake prediction，an intermational consensus has ben reachedon the uncertaintyof seismic activity，and probabilistic prediction is the direction for future development. The concept of building resilient cities has become universally recognized. Considering the Xiong'an New Area as an example，this study posits thatconstruction in thisarea alsorequires consideration ofthe risk of induced earthquakes and soil liquefaction，inconjunction with the increase inseismicactivityinNorth China.Studies have been published on earthquake casualties associated with emergency relief.Earthquake response inan aging society is a new topic，and this studyexplains the three crucial aspectsofearthquake knowledge;thatis，vulnerable sectionsofbuildings，earthquake analysis，and risk avoidance for the elderly.

Keywordsearthquake uncertainty； probabilistic prediction;resilient city； Xiong'an New Area; earthquakeessentials

0 引言

五千年来，地震一直伴随着我们。（剩余29200字）