NMME中ENSO预报技巧变化及其可能原因探究

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关键词北美多模式集合（NMME）;ENSO预报技巧；原因分析

中图分类号：P732.6文献标志码：A 文章编号：2096-3599（2025）06-0057-14

DOI：10.19513/j.cnki.hyqxxb.20240725003

Evolution of ENSO prediction skill in NMME and possible causes

JIANG Hangjiao， LU Lu （20 （1.First Instituteof Oceanography，MNR，Qingdao 266061，China；2.Collgeof IntellgentSystems Scienceand Engineering，HarbinEnginering University，Harbin15ool，China；3.KeyLaboratoryofMarineScienceandNumerical Modeling，Ministry ofNatural Resources，Qingdao 266O61，China）

AbstractUsing the North American Multi-Model Ensemble （NMME） hindcasts and ERSST observations， we investigate how the El Nino-Southern Oscilation（ENSO）prediction skill changes with the NMME model update and its possible causes. The NMME is divided into 4 phases of model update，approximately representing the operational model suites of 2011-2012，2012-2014，2014-2019 and 2019-present.ENSO prediction skillsare analyzed in the hindcast for the period of 1982-2010.Results show that ENSO prediction skill does not change much in short-term prediction but improves significantly in long-term prediction with the model update. The possible reasons for the improvement are the improvement of ENSO spring prediction barrier and the improvement of NMME's prediction skillfor Atlantic Nino/Nina.

KeyWordsNorth American Multi-Model Ensemble（NMME）； ENSO prediction skill； cause analysis

0 引言

Oscillation，ENSO）是热带太平洋异常温暖和寒冷状态之间的周期性波动，是热带太平洋的主要年际变化特征之一[1]。（剩余16713字）