基于降水适宜度的金银花气象指数保险纯费率厘定

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Determination of pure premium rate for honeysuckle meteorological index insurance based on precipitation suitability

LU Xuemei1²，LIU Kexin²， XING Jin²，AI Xin³ （1.KeyLaboratoryforMeteorologicalDisasterPreventionandMitigationofShandong，Jinan25oo31，China；2.Linyi Meteorological Service，Linyi 2760O4，China；3.Shandong Agricultural University，Tai'an271o18，China）

AbstractThe honeysuckle yield data and meteorological data in Pingyi，Linyi from 1998 to 2024 are used to construct a model for precipitation suitability-yield reduction rate of honeysuckle with precipitation suitability as the meteorological index.Based on the goodness-of-fittest method，the probability and grade of yield reduction rate are determined，and then the pure premium rate for honeysuckle insurance is determined. The results are shown below.（1） Due to the interannual differences in meteorological conditions，the meteorological yield of honeysuckle in Pingyi fluctuates greatly from 2001 to 2O24，and the annual yield reduction rate is 41.7% .（2）The best relationship between precipitation suitability and yield reductionrate of honeysuckle isreflected bya quadratic polynomial regression model. The smallr the precipitation suitability of honeysuckle，the greater the yield reduction rate ofhoneysuckle.When theprecipitation suitabilityis O，theyield reduction rateof honeysuckle reaches its maximum，namely 68.874% .（3）The pure premium rate for honeysuckle insurance in Pingyi is determined to be 4.01% by using the distribution model for yield reduction rate and the classical combustion analysis method， which could provide scientific basis for the design of agricultural insurance products.

Keywordshoneysuckle；precipitation suitability；yield reduction rate；meteorological index insurance

0 引言

农产品的产量和品质与气象条件关系密切。（剩余12089字）