米兰科维奇旋回理论不是轨道尺度古气候分析和解释的一把潜在万能钥匙

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Abstract： The Milankovitch theory posits that variations in Earth's orbital parameters （eccentricity， obliquity， and precession） cause changes in summer insolation at mid-to-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. These variations are considered the fundamental driver of glacial-interglacial cycles. In particular， changes in summer solar radiation around 65∘N are regarded as pivotal in triggering these cycles. This theory has been widely accepted as a classic in the field of paleoclimatology. In recent years，a trend has emerged whereby highresolution climate proxies exhibiting periodicities such as 100ka 41ka ，and 20ka are automatically attributed to

Milankovitch theory.In light of this，the present study employs two datasets uninfluenced by orbital parameters to demonstrate that while periodic variations in orbital parameters can be recorded in geological archives， the periodicities displayed by these archives （e.g. 100ka ）are not necessarily caused by orbital changes. The identification of a particular periodicity in a climate proxy （e.g. 100ka ） is merely a preliminary finding and should not be directly associated with Milankovitch theory without additional corroborating evidence.In the context of orbital-scale paleoclimate studies，a cautious approach is imperative.At the very least， it must be demonstrated that the physical， chemical， or other mechanisms underpinning proxy variations are correlated with paleoclimate changes. Furthermore，greater emphasis should be placed on the reliability of stratigraphic chronology.

Key words： Milankovitch theory; paleoclimate; orbital parameters; cycle; orbital scale

20世纪20一40年代，塞尔维亚天文学家米卢廷-米兰科维奇提出了被后人称为“米兰科维奇旋回理论”的假说。（剩余8012字）