华蒂山断裂带重庆段地区地震灾害风险研究

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中图分类号：P315.9 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1000-0844（2026）01—0166—11

DOI：10.20000/j.1000-0844.20250424001

Seismic disaster risk in the Chongqing section of the Huayingshan fault zone

QIN Juan，HUANG Yaosheng，WANG Zanjun，DONG Di，WANG Hongchao（Chongqing Earthquake Agency，Chongqing 401120，China）

Abstract： To comprehensively assess the baseline seismic disaster risk in the Chongqing section of the Huayingshan fault zone，a methodology combining quantitative evaluation and qualitative indicator system assessment was applied to seven districts traversed by the fault zone. Building inventory and population distribution data were used to estimate economic losses and casualties under seismic events of varying exceedance probabilities. Subsequently，according to regional characteristics， the analytic hierarchy process determined the weight coeficients of single-factor indicators influencing seismic disaster consequences. Disaster reduction capacity indicators were integrated across different administrative districts to delineate seismic risk zones. Rongchang District exhibited the highest seismic vulnerability， followed by Hechuan， Yongchuan，

Tongliang，Beibei， Bishan， and Dazu Districts. Hechuan District presented the highest seismic risk level， followed by Bishan，Beibei，Yongchuan，Rongchang，Tongliang，and Dazu Districts. These findings provide critical data to guide local governments in earthquake prevention and disaster reduction，enhancing engineering seismic measures，and optimizing emergency preparedness. Keywords： risk； seismic disaster assessment; disaster prevention and reduction; zoning

0 引言

风险是自然灾害或人为灾害与承灾体的易损性之间相互作用而引发或导致某种有害结果或潜在损失发生的可能性，其数学表达式为“风险 危险性 x 易损性/防灾减灾能力"[1]

21世纪以来，国际上已完成的自然灾害风险评估指标计划主要有灾害风险指标计划、多发区指标计划和美洲计划2。（剩余11646字）