摘要：近年产业销售起飞机理成为产业组织和市场营销的研究热点。目前研究分支有：以产品销售扩散研究发展成的经典的bass模型，但产品销售起飞本质上是个二分事件，所以扩散流派并没很好倡导和揭示起飞机理；golder等人不仅提出起飞概念，而且在研究方法上借用生存分析等技术，并取得重大进展。采用“起飞阈值”法对绿色农业产业销售时机进行实证分析，结果表明绿色农业产业在2002年实现产业起飞。
　　关键词：产业销售起飞；绿色农业产业；起飞阈值法
　　中图分类号：f274文献标识码：a
　　marketing for green agricultural industry
　　zhao chang
　　(college of economics and management,northwest a&f university,yangling 712100,china)[gk2!2]
　　abstract:
　　the theory of the industry sales take-off has becoming one of the most important themes in the field of industry organization and marketing. there are two basic directions. one is bass mode based on the product diffusion ,which can not fully explore the regularity. the other is raised by golder who developed the take-off concept and made a great moving by the survival analysis. therefore,this paper adopts golder's survival to evaluate sals take-off of the green agriculutural industry.
　　一、文献综述与问题引出
　　产业成长一般会经历从导入期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期等四个阶段，而每个阶段有其独特的发展机理。